Large Preflop Pot, It Will Be Tempting to Invest Another 4 to See His Turn

Apparently, there are some who disagree, and like to chase. Maybe they don’t know what they’re doing, and how it’s going to ruin their chip stack.

According to the Warkoppoker Blog, “chasing” hands is a common mistake made by new players (many others too). It occurs when a player remains on the hand while possibly suggesting he should get his hand dirty. This applies all over the hand, starting from the preflop betting round as well as in every other round through the river.

In an interesting column published in the February issue of “Ante Up” magazine, columnist Mark Brement, a seasoned pro at Warkop Poker who also teaches and trains the game of poker, said: “When we play the speculative hand preflop, it’s a form of chasing because we’ve been decided to play because the price was right. “

Here is my answer: The “speculative hand” is based on conjecture – guesswork – not knowledge. Would you rely on pure guesswork when deciding to invest your money, even if you didn’t have to work hard to get it? Furthermore, if “the price is right,” then it does not catch up; on the contrary, it makes good investment decisions based on knowing the pot odds are higher than the card odds – the higher the better, the better. Then, the price is right! We call this a Positive Expectation (PE). In the long run, such a decision will surely pay off.

However, there can be exceptions to every rule. Brement gives an example of a limit hold’em game where Big Blind (BB) is awarded A-3. For convenience, let’s say it’s a club. He called preflop hikes. Then the limp rose; BB and several others also called. There are 112 in the preflop pot. BB hopes to catch three more clubs to flush the nuts – at least two more on the flop, which will give him a sensible shot on a flush on a turn or river. But, it was a dry flop with only one BB suit. An opponent bets on the flop; and, holds only three BB fold clubs. Brement thought this was an “epic mistake.” Then, like luck, the turn and the river carry the runners’ club on the board. BB will win the monster pot, but he folds to avoid investing more chips (the bet is doubled on turns and rivers) in the hands of his three clubs. Brement advises his readers to do some calculations. So, I did the calculations. On top of the flop, BB owns three clubs. To catch a flush, both the turn and the river must be clubs. To calculate the odds (probability) of catching a runner-runner’s club, we multiply 10/47 by 9/46. That’s 4.16%. Next, we calculated the odds against making the flush: 95.84-to-4.16, or 23-to-1. With high card odds, are the pot odds high enough to justify BB calling this $ 4 bet? Assuming he and the other players are calling, the final pot should contain more than 184 (8 x 23), a far cry from the current pot size of 120 (112 + 8). Excluding BB calls, there must be more than eight additional 8 bets to warrant a call by BB. So, unless I miscalculated, BB did the right thing by folding. This seems not an exception to our rule: Never Chase. On the other hand, with. You never know.

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